By Dylan Scott

It's Kevin Nicholson vs. Leah Vukmir in the 2018 Wisconsin Republican Senate primary election.

Kevin Nicholson faces Leah Vukmir for the right to oppose Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in the midterm elections.

With the 2018 Wisconsin Senate election slipping away, Republicans could be losing what they once hoped was a prime opportunity to win a Senate seat in a state that Donald Trump carried in 2016.

A vicious GOP primary, pitting a former Democrat running as an outsider against the conservative state establishment, isn’t improving their odds of beating Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in her first reelection campaign. Voters will head to the polls on Tuesday to determine who her opponent will be.

The latest polling has shown the race between Kevin Nicholson, the ex-Democrat, and Leah Vukmir, a state senator, to be very close: Results range from Nicholson +10 to Vukmir +2. They’ve been climbing over each other to swing to the right and to embrace Trump, a questionable general election strategy in a state where the president is deeply unpopular.

But regardless of Tuesday’s outcome, Baldwin seems to be in an increasingly solid position to win reelection for a seat that Democrats must hold if they are to having any chance of winning the Senate back from Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections. Surveys have consistently shown her leading both Nicholson and Vukmir by as much as 10 points or more. Election forecasters have moved the race into the Likely Democratic camp.

If Republicans are to have any chance, they’ll have to rally around their candidate after the primary election and hope the national political environment improves. But the campaign between Nicholson and Vukmir, and Trump’s poor approval ratings, are roadblocks standing in their way.

Kevin Nicholson vs. Leah Vukmir in the Wisconsin GOP Senate primary

The Republican campaign has been defined by Nicholson’s history as a Democrat, Vukmir’s lackluster record as a legislator, and, of course, Donald Trump.

Nicholson was a Democrat until the early 2000s — either 2000 or 2002, depending on which story you believe — and his parents actually gave the highest allowable donation to Baldwin in February, maxing campaign contributions to their son’s potential general election opponent.

The candidate then accused his own parents of political intolerance, as the Washington Post reported, in a bizarre escalation of the family’s feud. Vukmir’s campaign, meanwhile, boasts that she is a “lifelong Republican.”

But on the other side, outside conservative groups like Club for Growth have criticized Vukmir as a RINO (Republican in name only). The state senator, in the legislature since 2002, has the support of the state GOP and has allied herself with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Nicholson has used that to paint his opponent as a creature of the political establishment and an “insider” against his outsider.

Nicholson has also attacked Vukmir for being insufficiently supportive of the president, even though her campaign spots name-check building Trump’s border wall and draining the Washington swamp. His campaign is running TV ads of Vukmir saying she wasn’t endorsing Donald Trump. As the folks at PolitiFact documented, she originally supported Walker and then Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) before coming around to Trump.

Vukmir called the ads “desperate tactics” and said Nicholson was using “D.C. swamp campaign strategy plain and simple.”

“This race has devolved into grotesque pandering of who’s the biggest Trump fan,” Scot Ross, who leads the progressive group One Wisconsin Now, told me.

The other backdrop is a battle of the Republican billionaires. Illinois shipping magnate Richard Uihlein’s groups have spent a lot of money supporting Nicholson, while Wisconsin homegrown megadonor Diane Hendricks has thrown millions behind Vukmir. That healthy supply of funding has also helped keep the race competitive.

The polling doesn’t paint a very clear picture, so Tuesday’s primary should be close. Marquette University, the gold-standard pollster in the state, found Vukmir with a 2-point lead in mid-July. But soon after, NBC News/Marist found Nicholson leading by 10.

After the heated primary, Republicans have just a few months to rally around their candidate before the November general election.

“The GOP knows it has a unity problem,” Ross said. “That acrimony is going to have some impact on their enthusiasm.”

Republican donors want to oust Baldwin and turn Wisconsin red for good

As evidenced in the Republican primary, GOP donor dollars have been pouring in against Baldwin. By early August, outside conservative groups had already spent $16 million in Wisconsin, according to a summary provided to Vox. For context, during the entirety of Baldwin’s 2012 Senate race — during a presidential election year, when spending is always higher — anti-Baldwin forces spent about $20 million.

The money is coming in from the usual suspects, in addition to Hendricks and Uihlein: groups aligned with the Koch brothers and the National Republican Senate Committee, which will surely become more involved once there is an official Republican nominee.

“There is more excitement to go on offense than be on defense in some corners,” one Wisconsin Republican operative, who asked for anonymity to speak candidly, told me of the party’s mood heading into the campaign.

They’ve targeted Baldwin on some of the expected ground, like opposing the Republican tax plan, but there is one Wisconsin-specific issue that GOP operatives want to make a big deal of through November.

An outside group, Concerned Veterans of America, has tried to tar Baldwin with the Tomah Veterans Affairs hospital scandal. Baldwin was criticized after an inspector general report surfaced indicating that she had sat on a report about the possible overprescription of painkillers at the hospital where a veteran overdosed and died.

“If she loses, that’s probably the main reason why she loses,” the GOP operative said.

Left unsaid in those attacks, Baldwin’s campaign would note, is that she helped to get a law passed in 2016 — one she worked on with the family of the veteran — aimed at reforming opioid prescribing practices at the VA.

The good and the bad for Tammy Baldwin

Wisconsin is a big battleground, in many ways, in the 2018 midterms. Walker is seeking a third term after he dramatically cut the state’s welfare …read more

Read more here: Wisconsin’s vicious Republican Senate primary election, explained

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